NASCAR at Michigan expert predictions: Best chance for Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick? (2024)

It’s been a doozy of a week for NASCAR. Upon the Cup Series’ return from an Olympic break, we got high drama and controversy at Richmond Raceway, which our NASCAR writers have covered extensively. We’ll dig into it more here, too, with questions about what happens next and if the league learned anything from the experience.

Meanwhile, this week, the Cup Series heads to Michigan for the third-to-last race before the playoffs. Will home-state advantage help the Ford and Chevrolet teams? Our experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi, break down the biggest NASCAR storylines, odds for the FireKeepers Casino 400 as well as favorites and long shots for Sunday’s race.

The FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway is set for Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET and broadcasts on USA.

Let’s get into it!

You know we have to ask about the finish at Richmond, where Austin Dillon intentionally crashed Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin on his way to the win. NASCAR allowed Dillon to keep the win but stripped his playoff eligibility on Wednesday while docking him 25 points. Jeff wrote it was the right call after the news. But do we know where the line is between hard racing and a penalty now?

Jeff:That remains murky, at least for the moment. NASCAR’s Elton Sawyer declined to go into specifics of what exactly made them penalize Dillon, other than to say it was the “totality” of his actions. Part of that is because there’s a pending appeal of the decision from Richard Childress Racing. But even after the appeals process concludes, I’m not so sure we’ll get an exact definition of what is OK and what isn’t. Sawyer, a former driver himself, said it doesn’t need to be spelled out because all drivers already know what’s OK and what crosses the line. I’m not so sure that explanation will fly the next time there’s a controversial finish, but at least now we know there’s some minimum standard that will be enforced when it comes to how someone can win a race.

Jordan:A clear line didn’t exist before Dillon’s win at Richmond, nor does it exist now. But the positive is that at least some standard exists to where NASCAR will make the tough call if forced to do so. What’s important going forward is that NASCAR is consistent in how it reacts when forced. The lack of consistent officiating has long been a pet peeve within the garage, to the point that drivers are often befuddled as to what constitutes a penalty and what doesn’t.

Do you expect further fallout from the Richmond drama, or will drivers get on to racing as usual in Michigan? Will we see more desperate racing as the playoffs loom?

Jeff:Oh, I’d say there will definitely be fallout at some point. Whether Dillon was penalized or not, his dirty driving took away the chance for both Logano and Hamlin to win that race. Logano certainly won’t forget that soon and is likely to dish out payback at some point, and Hamlin will probably do so in a more surgical way as well. That said, Dillon often doesn’t run up front (he hadn’t led a lap all season before Sunday), so I’m not sure how many chances these guys will have this year for retaliation of some kind. They’re not going to want to mess up their playoffs by getting into an incident with Dillon when he’s not even a playoff driver anymore. But in terms of more desperate racing in the next three weeks, it certainly will be possible on restarts this weekend at Michigan, as well as at Daytona in general throughout the entire race.

Jordan:Both Logano and Hamlin have far more important things to concern themselves with than exacting revenge on Dillon. After all, they are championship contenders, whereas Dillon is certainly not. This means Logano and Hamlin have far more to lose, so expect both of them to move past Richmond quickly. Doing anything will only hinder their respective title hopes.

It seems like you and many others were big fans of the tire change at Richmond. Any drawbacks we’re missing, or is this the future of NASCAR racing?

Jeff:Having different tire compounds, like in Formula 1, could be a winning move for NASCAR, based on what we saw at Richmond. It’s just the beginning of a long road in developing those, and ultimately, Goodyear and NASCAR might opt to just bring a softer tire and use that as the main tire for the race (without bringing another option). Either way, the ultimate goal is to have tires matter again because that creates more passing opportunities where drivers have the option to either race hard or be more conservative and save more rubber for later in a run.

Jordan: If option tires are going to become a regular thing, then teams need to have more than two sets at their disposal. Otherwise, crew chiefs across the board will quickly fall into a similar routine on when to utilize the soft tires, thereby effectively negating any of the strategic advantages to be gained.

What are you looking forward to most at Michigan this week?

Jeff:With the loss of Fontana (RIP, you beauty), there’s only one two-mile oval in NASCAR now. And that’s a shame because both Fontana and Michigan put on great races with the Next Gen car. At least we have Michigan. There’s the tease of a terrific show there after two entertaining and enjoyable Next Gen races: Chris Buescher’s victory last season and Kevin Harvick’s penultimate career win in 2022. I love these big tracks with the Next Gen car, and Sunday should be a very good test of strength heading into the playoffs.

Jordan: Michigan now having just a single race weekend means Ford- and Chevrolet-backed teams have only one opportunity to show out in the backyard of their corporate headquarters. This is a big deal, a very big deal. And for Toyota it’s a chance to show Ford and Chevrolet up on their own track. All of this makes Michigan one of the more underrated important races on the season.

Who do you think is most likely to win it?

Jeff: I’m going to go out on a limb this week and pick Bubba Wallace (+2200). He could have won at Michigan two years ago but finished second, then had early-race speed last season until strategy buried him. It’s not just that he’s led at least 20 laps in the past two races there, but he also has four straight top-15 starts (including a pole) in the Cup Series at Michigan, plus a Truck Series victory in 2017. Why does that matter? Because Wallace is at his best when his confidence is high, and he knows Michigan is a place where both he and his cars will have speed.

Jordan:Tyler Reddick, Wallace’s 23XI Racing teammate, is overdue to score a second win on the season. Not only does Reddick come in riding a streak of six consecutive finishes of sixth or better, but he quietly leads the series in top-five and top-10 finishes and is only five points behind championship points leader Kyle Larson. But to get the same degree of spotlight as Larson, Reddick needs to win more. Michigan represents a great chance for him to do just that.

What long shots are you picking? Is anyone who hasn’t won yet a good pick to win Sunday and get a spot in the playoffs?

Jeff:Wallace might almost qualify as a longshot, but Alex Bowman and Ross Chastain (both +3000) are both potential winners, with Chastain needing a win to make the playoffs. There’s a pretty sharp dropoff from Kyle Busch (+3500) to Josh Berry (+6600), and I’d really hesitate to go any lower than Busch. Although I was certainly wrong last week about an upset pick (sorry!), and there’s always a chance of a fuel mileage race or even a rain-shortened fluke win at Michigan if you want to take a flier on someone who is desperate to make the playoffs.

Jordan:Ty Gibbs has quite high odds (+2000) for a driver with a top team (Joe Gibbs Racing), and he’s been close several times this season to breaking through to get his first career win. And considering Michigan is a track that favors teams such as JGR, Gibbs winning Sunday wouldn’t be all that surprising.

Odds for FireKeepers Casino 400 winner

Odds, via BetMGM, update live.

Further reading

Denny Hamlin on GOATs, post-driving future, long-ago altercation with Bubba Wallace: 12 Questions

NASCAR should draw a line for future races after Austin Dillon’s move

(Photo of Bubba Wallace: Sean Gardner / Getty Images)